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  1. #1
    JFizzleJR's Avatar
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    I don't usually do this, but... (stock tip)

    I'm begging you to check out this opportunity and not miss it. The stock ticker symbol is "AEN"...it's a micro-cap pharmaceutical company that has 3 phase III drugs and 2 phase II drugs. This kind of caliber company with such an extremely low valuation is almost unheard of. Any positive PR and this thing goes through the roof. The float is only 13M shares, no debt, enormous research funding from grants, and almost 50% insider ownership. Not many people are willing to give up shares. I first bought in just below .60 and it has since more than doubled to about $1.35 right now. A director from the company just presented at an annual conference and the PPS jumped over 15% in an instant. The stock is still relatively under the radar and I have a REALISTIC price target of $50 within the next few years! Its drug for MS is one of the most promising in the near future and that market alone is $23 billion. With an absurdly conservative market share of 1%, that's $230 million in sales, which equals almost 10x the current market cap. This is a serious stock tip and I would be willing to bet all I have that this thing will go up from this point, far and fast! That doesn't excuse that you should do your own research, but I figured I'd let my fellow GH brotheren in on a little gem... WWW.ADEONAPHARMA.COM You're welcome

    P.S. If you are skeptical on how fast micro-cap biotech stocks can pop, check out some charts for CYCC, KERX, NEXM, SNSS, SOMX, HGSI, DNDN, VNDA etc. You will see many of them are followed by declines off the highs, but the ones that come out with solid and fundamentally transformational news will maintain the new and much higher prices.


  2. #2
    mjh3ides's Avatar
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    I love me some small cap biotechs. You know who their marketing partner will be if they file an NDA for any of those drugs? Also, have they announced any of their stage 3 trial results? Beware of them doing a big secondary after announcing news and dilluting the share price though. They only have 3.5mm in cash on the balance sheet & negative cash flow...they're gonna need more operating cash real soon with that kind of burn rate.

  3. #3
    JFizzleJR's Avatar
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    mjh, you hit the nail right on the head. here's the conference presentation: http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/3954592 with some hinting at partnerships coming in the near future. I am not concerned with a secondary because just last week they announced an additional 800k grant for ongoing clinicals and the O/S is only 23M as it is; so it wouldn't be as harmful as 99.9% of all other share offerings/dilutions. They are extremely tight with their money and I don't forsee any hiccups in their path to success once they announce they have secured a partner(s). No news on the phase III's yet as they are expected to announce sometime in 1Q, another set of news in the 2nd Q and a 3rd set around 'mid-year'...This one is as ripe for the picking as I've ever seen!

  4. #4
    Click avatar for tech links/info, donation request K447's Avatar
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    What are the major known risks with this particular play?

  5. #5
    JFizzleJR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mjh3ides View Post
    They only have 3.5mm in cash on the balance sheet & negative cash flow...they're gonna need more operating cash real soon with that kind of burn rate.
    Quick follow-up on this after watching the conference and recalling some info: Their cash burn rate is approx. $790,000 per quarter and they have previously stated that current funding is sufficient for the next 12 months (from the date of the last 10-Q). They are a long way away from running into any sort of crunch for cash IMO.

    Quote Originally Posted by K447 View Post
    What are the major known risks with this particular play?
    There really aren't any noteable ones that aren't obvious to tell you the truth. Bad trial results or a CRL from the FDA are the only possible things I could think of that could come close to knocking this thing down. I hate to sound so optimistic, but it truly is warranted here. When the first batch of news hits within the next few months the stock will be much more closely followed than it is now and I expect a PPS of around $5+ at that point, depending on the extent of the results of course. This company is extremely promising IMHO. Also, another plus is that it just acquired a lab that generates revenues.

    For more info I'd suggest sifting through filings/reports and visiting the website. Yahoo message boards can provide some value, but beware of BS that people post looking to spur panic buying or panic selling. Take everything from there with a grain of salt and look into yourself and/or wait to see if someone calls the info out as BS. You could even run a quick trade on this stock if you're not interested in sticking around for long, but I'd advise a longer term investment to reap the full benefits. A quick peak at the level II quotes following any sort of PR and you will see what I mean when I say not many people want to give up their shares!

  6. #6
    mjh3ides's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by K447 View Post
    What are the major known risks with this particular play?
    Just ask Martha Stewart about IMCL. These are risky plays because there is so much time & money invested by these co's to get their drugs through clinical trials before they are even presented to the FDA for approval. It's all about the drug pipeline...this one has 3 in late stage clinical trials, which makes it more appealing because you're not betting the farm on one drug. The reason that there is a potential big payday(or loss) is because you have a small company with almost no revenue whose stock can skyrocket overnight with positive news on the potential of an FDA approval. The FDA is a big variable in the equation though...it's still a gov't beurocracy that can & will play favorites sometimes. Also, due to the focus on healthcare reform these days, I'd expect them to be even stricter on what they allow to pass. This is NOT where you want to be putting your kids college $ or your retirement saving, but for someone willing to take a little risk with a small percentage of their portfolio these can be fun if you do your homework.

  7. #7
    JFizzleJR's Avatar
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    No need to wait for pre-FDA decision date runups. Even filing an NDA can easily cause a double in PPS. I've seen it happen within the last 2 weeks alone. However, I did pull the trigger on a stock waiting for FDA approval and lost my ass when they got a CRL. Gambling on FDA decisions is not the best strategy by any means and this company, as you mentioned, has much more going for it than one drug and a date with the FDA.

    Here is the link to the slides to go along with the link to the conference presentation in post #3:
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...002/ex99_1.htm

    A few trading background tid bits: The stock went from the 60 cent range to a high of $1.83 within a week on over 25M volume and has pulled back on only approx. 6M volume. Before today's conference there was 3 full days of trading in a tight consolidation/accumulation range. This is all just on small-time news. This is still the beginning. Riiiiiide the wave

  8. #8
    AaronC's Avatar
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    I like buying straddles or strangles 2 weeks ahead of FDA announcements or other MAJOR news. After the announcement a large move in either direction is expected and you will most likely profit huge from it. DNDN example. Direction is a non factor with this strategy, just need a large move in either direction.

    Since AEN isn't optionable, and not a high enough price, I probably won't mess with it. Although it is coming in to the rising 8 day MA. If it pulls in there and takes out the previous bar high I may buy some with a .01 stop under the low of the bar I bought on.

  9. #9
    mjh3ides's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JFizzleJR View Post
    No need to wait for pre-FDA decision date runups. Even filing an NDA can easily cause a double in PPS. I've seen it happen within the last 2 weeks alone.
    +1 on that. I've seen little biotechs have incredible runs on even positive stage 2 data.

    Quote Originally Posted by AaronC View Post
    I like buying straddles or strangles 2 weeks ahead of FDA announcements or other MAJOR news. After the announcement a large move in either direction is expected and you will most likely profit huge from it. DNDN example. Direction is a non factor with this strategy, just need a large move in either direction.

    Since AEN isn't optionable, and not a high enough price, I probably won't mess with it. Although it is coming in to the rising 8 day MA. If it pulls in there and takes out the previous bar high I may buy some with a .01 stop under the low of the bar I bought on.
    Straddles are a good idea if you know when a news item will happen, an FDA announcement for example. However, most times it is impossible to predict when news will come, so if you're sitting in a long straddle nearing expiration you're gonna get killed by depreciation of time value. A few years ago I was playing MLNM with a married put & if the pps was pulling back I would sell the put at a profit, thereby reducing my basis on the stock & roll down to a lower strike price contract. However, as the stock became more volatile it was nearly impossible to book profits on the puts because when the stock price fell, time value in the option premium was depreciating faster than intrisic value was appreciating. I find the same situation in many small-midcap biotechs because near the money options are just too damn expensive. Technical analysis doesn't work really well on these either since they are so news driven...the chart can look horrible & they come out of nowhere & take off on positive data.

  10. #10
    AaronC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mjh3ides View Post
    +1 on that. I've seen little biotechs have incredible runs on even positive stage 2 data.


    Straddles are a good idea if you know when a news item will happen, an FDA announcement for example. However, most times it is impossible to predict when news will come, so if you're sitting in a long straddle nearing expiration you're gonna get killed by depreciation of time value. A few years ago I was playing MLNM with a married put & if the pps was pulling back I would sell the put at a profit, thereby reducing my basis on the stock & roll down to a lower strike price contract. However, as the stock became more volatile it was nearly impossible to book profits on the puts because when the stock price fell, time value in the option premium was depreciating faster than intrisic value was appreciating. I find the same situation in many small-midcap biotechs because near the money options are just too damn expensive. Technical analysis doesn't work really well on these either since they are so news driven...the chart can look horrible & they come out of nowhere & take off on positive data.
    As with anything, you need to have a plan to employ any strategy. And you are right, biotechs can be very hard to trade technically. You can wait for an entry, then have a big gap completely mess up an entry or exit. This is why I usually steer clear of these on a stock play. If you are going to employ a straddle or strangle strategy you need to give yourself time. When an event date is known you need to get in ahead of the big $$$ because implied volatility will go through the roof and make the options super expensive.

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